MeinAural Sleep Operating Model

Users And Revenue

Paid users now Subscription price / month Payment / app-store fee % EEG / Adaptive+ users %

Acquisition model Adoption / diffusion speed % / month Monthly churn % One-time CAC / new paid user Bootstrap CAC reinvest % of net revenue ODE steps / month LTV horizon cap months Projection months

Market And Adoption

Market preset Addressable adult base Sleep-tracker reachable % Paid serviceable share % Paid TAM override Sigmoid midpoint month Organic innovation p % / month Word-of-mouth q % / month External CAC budget $ / month Starting CAC reserve $

Recording And Retention

Active nights / user-month Raw detail retention days Compact summary retention months Compact summary MiB / night Watch-only GiB / night EEG GiB / night

Reports And API

Weekly reports / user Report eligible users % DeepSeek input tokens / report DeepSeek output tokens / report API requests / user-month API CPU ms / request

Platform Prices

R2 storage $ / GB-month R2 Class A $ / M ops R2 Class B $ / M ops DeepSeek input $ / M tokens DeepSeek output $ / M tokens Fixed audio content hosting $ / month

Supabase And Sync

Supabase plan / compute $ Supabase auth included MAU Supabase MAU overage $ DB metadata MiB / user DB disk $ / GB-month Supabase egress MiB / user-month

MRR

Net Revenue

Recurring Opex

Operating Profit Before CAC

Acquisition Spend

Cash After CAC

R2 Storage

CAC Payback

Operating LTV

LTV : CAC

Recurring Monthly Cost Breakdown

Retention Shape

Growth Projection

Scenario Matrix

Scenario	EEG %	Paid Users	ARR	R2	Supabase	API	Reports	Acquisition	Op LTV / User	LTV : CAC	Cohort Net Value	Recurring Opex	Op Profit Before CAC	Cash After CAC	Recurring / Gross

Current Assumption Sources

Measured watch-only low bound: 0.030 GiB/night Planning watch-only: 0.10 GiB/night Measured EEG/Adaptive+: 1.247 GiB/night Default paid CAC: $60/new subscriber Paid TAM: addressable adults * sleep-tracker reach * paid serviceable share Operating LTV: churn-implied lifetime capped by horizon, after payment fees and recurring opex Bootstrap ODE: dU/dt = net-revenue-funded CAC growth * TAM remaining - churn Cloudflare R2 pricing Cloudflare Workers pricing Supabase pricing Supabase MAU pricing DeepSeek V4 pricing Bass diffusion model Mobile UA benchmarks Fitness subscription UA metrics Apple 15% small business fee Google Play service fees AASM sleep-tracker usage survey US Census 18+ population estimates RevenueCat subscription benchmarks

Provider prices, TAM, acquisition costs, p/q diffusion rates, and LTV are defaults, not hardcoded truth. CAC is charged only to paid acquisition, while organic/Bass diffusion adds users without CAC. Bootstrap ODE uses a one-month lag: this month's net revenue creates next month's CAC budget. LTV uses the churn-implied paid lifetime, capped by the horizon input, and can go negative when recurring serving cost exceeds net subscription revenue. Refresh these before investor or production commitments.